{"id":78217,"date":"2020-05-08T10:18:06","date_gmt":"2020-05-08T07:18:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.btv.md\/?p=78217"},"modified":"2020-05-08T10:18:06","modified_gmt":"2020-05-08T07:18:06","slug":"perspective-economice-pesimiste-pentru-r-moldova-dupa-pandemie","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.btv.md\/ro\/perspective-economice-pesimiste-pentru-r-moldova-dupa-pandemie\/","title":{"rendered":"Perspective economice pesimiste pentru R. Moldova dup\u0103 pandemie"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Banca Mondial\u0103 anticipeaz\u0103 o recesiune economic\u0103 \u00een R. Moldova de cel pu\u0163in 3,1 la sut\u0103, \u00een cel mai optimist scenariu potrivit c\u0103ruia epidemia de coronavirus va fi oprit\u0103 \u00een mare parte p\u00e2n\u0103 la mijlocul acestui an, transmite europalibera.org.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Dac\u0103 \u00eens\u0103 \u00eentreruperea activit\u0103\u0163ii economice va fi prelungit\u0103 p\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een luna august, atunci contrac\u0163ia ar putea fi de 5,2 la sut\u0103 ceea ce ar \u00eensemna cea mai mare sc\u0103dere economic\u0103 \u00een ultimul deceniu.<\/em><\/p>\n

Prognoza B\u0103ncii Mondiale privind recesiunea economic\u0103, \u00een scenariul optimist, coincide cu cea a Guvernului, care a anticipat o contrac\u021bie de cel pu\u0163in 3 la sut\u0103. Banca Mondial\u0103 prognozeaz\u0103 \u00eens\u0103 c\u0103 veniturile la bugetul de stat vor sc\u0103dea mai mult dec\u00e2t anticipeaz\u0103 autorit\u0103\u0163ile, dar deficitul bugetar ar putea fi mai mic dec\u00e2t cel prev\u0103zut \u00een bugetul rectificat care constituie peste 16 miliarde de lei sau 7,6 la sut\u0103 din PIB, spune economistul Marcel Chistruga: \u201eDeficitul \u00een viziunea noastr\u0103 va fi de aproape 6 la sut\u0103, mai mic dec\u00e2t cel planificat de autorit\u0103\u0163i fiindc\u0103 consider\u0103m noi unele aranjamente bilaterale ar putea s\u0103 nu se materializeze, iar istoric vorbind capacitatea de absorb\u0163ie a investi\u0163iilor este destul de modest\u0103. Desigur c\u0103 aici exist\u0103 mai multe incertitudini. O cre\u015ftere \u015fi mai mare a cheltuielilor pentru s\u0103n\u0103tate sau pentru protec\u0163ia locurilor de munc\u0103 sau cheltuieli asociate cu \u015fomerii ar putea duce la deficite mai mari.\u201d<\/p>\n

Un num\u0103r mare de migran\u0163i reveni\u0163i \u00een \u0163ar\u0103 va intensifica \u015fomajul, deja \u00een cre\u015ftere, precum \u015fi nevoile \u015fi a\u015fa mari de cheltuieli sociale, ceea ce va pune presiune suplimentar\u0103 nu doar pe pia\u0163a muncii, dar \u015fi pe sistemul fiscal, spune expertul. Un impact major asupra economiei va avea reducerea remiten\u0163elor, dar \u015fi cea a exporturilor. Produc\u0163ia agricol\u0103 va sc\u0103dea din cauza secetei, dar impactul \u00eenc\u0103 urmeaz\u0103 s\u0103 fie estimat.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Ideea guvernului c\u0103 investi\u021biile \u00een infrastructur\u0103 vor salva viitorul economiei, s-ar putea s\u0103 nu dea rezultate scontate, \u00eentruc\u00e2t investi\u0163iile se vor reduce cu 15 la sut\u0103, spune Marcel Chistruga.<\/p>\n

Eforturile autorit\u0103\u0163ilor depuse pentru dep\u0103\u0219irea actualelor dificult\u0103\u0163i economice actuale ar trebui s\u0103 se concentreze, \u00eent\u00e2i de toate, pe identificarea \u0219i punerea la dispozi\u021bia companiilor a unor fonduri de lichidit\u0103\u021bi care s\u0103 le salveze de faliment \u015fi concedieri masive, spun economi\u015ftii B\u0103nci Mondiale. Potrivit expertizei, f\u0103r\u0103 nicio interven\u021bie pe partea de v\u00e2nz\u0103ri sau din partea guvernului jum\u0103tate din \u00eentreprinderile din Moldova din sectorul de producere s-ar putea confrunta cu probleme de lichiditate \u0219i falimenta \u00een mai pu\u021bin de 20 de s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2ni.<\/p>\n

Programul de m\u0103suri \u00een sprijinul companiilor g\u00e2ndit de Guvern, care include subven\u021bionarea impozit\u0103rii salariilor \u0219i a ratelor dob\u00e2nzilor, am\u00e2narea obliga\u021biilor fiscale sau reducerea TVA \u00een anumite sectoare, este unul necesar, dar insuficient, sus\u0163in exper\u0163ii.<\/p>\n

Ei precizeaz\u0103 c\u0103 criza sanitar\u0103 a afectat companiile moldovene prin intermediul mai multor canale, nu doar a restric\u0163iilor impuse de autorit\u0103\u0163i. Multe companii au fost afectate de reducerea comer\u0163ului. Datele B\u0103ncii Mondiale arat\u0103 c\u0103 una din cinci \u00eentreprinderi din Moldova realizeaz\u0103 o parte din v\u00e2nz\u0103ri \u00een str\u0103in\u0103tate, iar 3 din 4 \u00eentreprinderi folosesc materiale importate. Activitatea economic\u0103 redus\u0103 va limita capacitatea \u00eentreprinderilor de a pl\u0103ti \u0219i a men\u021bine for\u021ba de munc\u0103, fapt ce le va obliga s\u0103 reduc\u0103 for\u021ba de munc\u0103, anticipeaz\u0103 exper\u0163ii. Ei cred c\u0103 dup\u0103 sprijinul acordat companiilor sub form\u0103 de lichidit\u0103\u021bi, Guvernul ar trebui s\u0103 mute accentul pe politicile de sus\u021binere a recuper\u0103rii rapide, ajut\u00e2nd companiile s\u0103-\u015fi restabileasc\u0103 lan\u021burile de aprovizionare \u015fi s\u0103-\u015fi consolideze competitivitatea.<\/p>\n

O recuperare economic\u0103 rapid\u0103 ar necesita o intermediere financiar\u0103 puternic\u0103, care ar putea fi \u00eens\u0103 afectat\u0103 de ratele mai mari de faliment a companiilor. Exper\u0163ii B\u0103ncii Mondiale consider\u0103 c\u0103 atenuarea impactului pe termen scurt al crizei este o necesitate urgent\u0103, dar la fel de importante r\u0103m\u00e2n problemele cronice ale Moldovei legate de politicile concuren\u021biale \u015fi sistemul judiciar.<\/p>\n

Sursa: europalibera.org<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Banca Mondial\u0103 anticipeaz\u0103 o recesiune economic\u0103 \u00een R. Moldova de cel pu\u0163in 3,1 la sut\u0103, \u00een cel mai optimist scenariu potrivit c\u0103ruia epidemia de coronavirus va fi oprit\u0103 \u00een mare parte p\u00e2n\u0103 la mijlocul acestui an, transmite europalibera.org. Dac\u0103 \u00eens\u0103 \u00eentreruperea activit\u0103\u0163ii economice va fi prelungit\u0103 p\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een luna august, atunci contrac\u0163ia ar putea fi […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":78218,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6369,6377],"tags":[13858,12527,13859],"class_list":["post-78217","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economie-ro","category-stiri","tag-marcel-chistruga","tag-pandemie","tag-perspective-economice-pesimiste"],"yoast_head":"\nPerspective economice pesimiste pentru R. 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