{"id":83172,"date":"2020-06-05T15:12:37","date_gmt":"2020-06-05T12:12:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.btv.md\/?p=83172"},"modified":"2020-06-05T15:12:37","modified_gmt":"2020-06-05T12:12:37","slug":"ionita-carantina-a-prabusit-piata-valutara-din-republica-moldova","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.btv.md\/ro\/ionita-carantina-a-prabusit-piata-valutara-din-republica-moldova\/","title":{"rendered":"Ioni\u021b\u0103: Carantina a pr\u0103bu\u0219it pia\u021ba valutar\u0103 din Republica Moldova"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Criza prin care trece Republica Moldova are un impact major asupra economiei. Or, acest lucru poate fi sesizat pe pia\u021ba valutar\u0103 prin v\u00e2nz\u0103rile de valut\u0103 ale persoanelor fizice. \u00cen luna martie \u0219i aprilie volumul transferurilor a sc\u0103zut cu 18 milioane USD la 188 mil. USD. Cea mai mare c\u0103dere a fost \u00een aprilie cu 12%. \u00cens\u0103 transferurile cet\u0103\u021benilor nu reflect\u0103 situa\u021bia pe pia\u021ba valutar\u0103. Indicatorul cel mai relevant sunt v\u00e2nz\u0103rile de valut\u0103 ale persoanelor fizice, constat\u0103 \u00een cadrul emisiunii \u201e15 minute de realism economic\u201d, economistul IDIS Viitorul, Veaceslav Ioni\u021b\u0103, relateaz\u0103 <a href=\"https:\/\/cotidianul.md\/2020\/06\/04\/expert-economic-carantina-a-prabusit-piata-valutara-din-republica-moldova\/\">cotidianul.md<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Cel mai mare volum al transferurilor a fost atins \u00een 2008 \u2013 1,6 miliarde USD dup\u0103 care acestea a fost pr\u0103bu\u0219irea din 2009 cu recuperare p\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een 2013 \u0219i o c\u0103dere ulterioar\u0103. Iar din anul 2014 volumul remiterilor s-au stabilizat la 1,2 miliarde USD. \u00cen realitate, oamenii aduc banii \u00een \u021bar\u0103 nu \u00eentotdeauna oficial. Ei c\u00e2nd revin \u021bar\u0103 vin cu banii \u00een buzunar. De aceea un indicator mai relevant al pie\u021bei valutare sunt v\u00e2nz\u0103rile de valut\u0103 ale persoanelor fizice. Astfel, oameni transfer\u0103 oficial 1,3 miliarde USD, dar v\u00e2nd 2,1 miliarde USD.<\/p>\n<p>\u201e\u00cen perioada martie \u2013 aprilie avem o pr\u0103bu\u0219ire a pie\u021bei valutare fa\u021b\u0103 anul precedent. Persoanele fizice au v\u00e2ndut 350 mil. USD fa\u021b\u0103 de 560 mil. USD. Asemenea c\u0103dere nu a mai fost \u00eenregistrat\u0103 din 2009. Practic, cet\u0103\u021benii nu a v\u00e2ndut valut\u0103 \u00een lunile men\u021bionate. Explica\u021bia este c\u0103 moldovenii nu au putut aduce valut\u0103 \u00een \u021bar\u0103 din cauza carantinei. Astfel, cel mai mic volum de valut\u0103 v\u00e2ndut a fost \u00eenregistrat \u00een aprilie 2020 \u2013 135 milioane USD, cel mai redus volum din ultimii zece ani. Un volum slab al v\u00e2nz\u0103rilor de valut\u0103 a fost anii 2015, 2016 \u2013 ca urmare a crizei bancare \u2013 175 mil. USD\u201d, a men\u021bionat Ioni\u021b\u0103.<\/p>\n<p>\u00cen luna mai, probabil va fi un nivel la fel de mic al v\u00e2nz\u0103rilor de valut\u0103. Astfel, putem spune c\u0103 \u00een trimestrul doi c\u00e2nd am intrat \u00een plin\u0103 criz\u0103 volumul de valut\u0103 v\u00e2ndut va fi la nivelul minim din ultimii zece ani.<\/p>\n<p>Un alt element care explic\u0103 volumul sc\u0103zut al v\u00e2nz\u0103rilor de valut\u0103 este c\u0103 popula\u021bia nu a avut consum \u00een lunile martie \u2013 aprilie. Aici avem dou\u0103 explica\u021bii: nu au lucrat majoritatea unit\u0103\u021bilor de comer\u021b nealimentare, ori aceste bunuri reprezint\u0103 peste 40% din cheltuielile popula\u021biei. A doua explica\u021bia este c\u0103 pe timp de criz\u0103 popula\u021bia \u00ee\u0219i schimb\u0103 brusc comportamentul. Un detaliu este sc\u0103derea de dou\u0103 ori a v\u00e2nz\u0103rilor de automobile noi. Oamenii care au un venit stabil se dezic de acest lucru deoarece suntem \u00een criz\u0103 \u0219i nu le arde a ma\u0219ini. Asta dup\u0103 ce am avut c\u00e2\u021biva procur\u0103rile de automobile \u00eentrecea cu mult media european\u0103.<\/p>\n<p>\u00cen ce prive\u0219te cererea de valut\u0103, economistul IDIS Viitorul opineaz\u0103, c\u0103 anul acesta avem 177 mil. USD fa\u021b\u0103 de 211 mil. USD anul precedent. Cererea a sc\u0103zut ca urmare consumului. De exemplu, doar \u00een dou\u0103 luni popula\u021bia \u0219i-a redus cheltuielile pentru ma\u0219ini cu 700 mil. de lei.<\/p>\n<p>\u201ePer total, anual deficitul pie\u021bei valutare a fost de 195 mil. USD. A existat o perioad\u0103 c\u00e2nd oferta era mai mare dec\u00e2t cererea, iar acum cererea a sc\u0103zut deoarece \u00eencetine\u0219te economia. Or, deficitul de valut\u0103 a fost unul din factorii, care a dus la deprecierea leului \u00een luna martie. Men\u021bion\u0103m c\u0103 \u00een acest an BNM a fost nevoit\u0103 s\u0103 v\u00e2nd\u0103 180 mil. USD s\u0103 men\u021bin\u0103 cursul valutar. Am avut o interven\u021bie a FMI f\u0103r\u0103 precedent f\u0103r\u0103 condi\u021bii prin oferirea unui \u00eemprumut de 238 mil. USD. Acest lucru a ridicat nivelul rezervelor valutare la cel mai mare nivel \u2013 3.1 miliarde USD. Astfel, BNM are toate instrumentele pentru a men\u021bine cursul valutar. Problema este dac\u0103 e nevoie s\u0103-l men\u021bii\u201d, a explicat Ioni\u021b\u0103.<\/p>\n<p>Indicele Valutar al Moldovei (IVM 10) arat\u0103 c\u0103 leul moldovenesc s-a depreciat pu\u021bin, de la \u00eenceputul anului, fa\u021b\u0103 de euro \u0219i dolar, \u00eens\u0103 fa\u021b\u0103 de zece valute leul moldovenesc este mai puternic cu aproape 2%. De exemplu, moneda na\u021bional\u0103 fa\u021b\u0103 de hrivna ucrainean\u0103 s-a apreciat cu aproape 9%, iar fa\u021b\u0103 de lira turceasc\u0103 leul este mai puternic cu 10%, dar a fost cu 18% mai tare. Acest lucru \u00eenseamn\u0103 c\u0103 produc\u021bia turceasc\u0103 a fost mai ieftin\u0103 cu 18%. Am luat aceste \u021b\u0103ri, deoarece sunt principalii furnizori de produc\u021bie pe pia\u021ba local\u0103. Iar produc\u0103torii locali nu pot face fa\u021b\u0103 concuren\u021bei locale, deoarece doar cursul valutar face ca produc\u021bia autohton\u0103 s\u0103 fie mai scump\u0103 comparativ cu \u021b\u0103rile vecine.<\/p>\n<p>Veaceslav Ioni\u021b\u0103 a concluzionat c\u0103 Republica Moldova intr\u0103 \u00eentr-o criz\u0103 foarte puternic\u0103, iar lucrul acesta se vede pe pia\u021ba valutar\u0103 \u0219i \u00een mod special prin v\u00e2nz\u0103rile de valut\u0103 ale persoanelor fizice, care \u00een dou\u0103 luni de carantin\u0103 au \u00eenregistrat cea mai profund\u0103 c\u0103dere din istoria Republicii Moldova. Salvarea a venit de la FMI prin banii pe care i-a oferit. Dar men\u021binerea cursului valutar poate fi periculoas\u0103, deoarece distruge produc\u021bia autohton\u0103 \u0219i nu putem concura cu \u021b\u0103rile vecine.<\/p>\n<p>Sursa: <a href=\"https:\/\/cotidianul.md\/2020\/06\/04\/expert-economic-carantina-a-prabusit-piata-valutara-din-republica-moldova\/\">cotidianul.md<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Criza prin care trece Republica Moldova are un impact major asupra economiei. Or, acest lucru poate fi sesizat pe pia\u021ba valutar\u0103 prin v\u00e2nz\u0103rile de valut\u0103 ale persoanelor fizice. \u00cen luna martie \u0219i aprilie volumul transferurilor a sc\u0103zut cu 18 milioane USD la 188 mil. USD. Cea mai mare c\u0103dere a fost \u00een aprilie cu 12%. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":83173,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6369,6377],"tags":[15010,15009,14816],"class_list":["post-83172","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economie-ro","category-stiri","tag-expert-economic-ro","tag-piata-valutara","tag-veaceslav-ionita-ro"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Ioni\u021b\u0103: Carantina a pr\u0103bu\u0219it pia\u021ba valutar\u0103 din Republica Moldova - BTV<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.btv.md\/ro\/ionita-carantina-a-prabusit-piata-valutara-din-republica-moldova\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Ioni\u021b\u0103: Carantina a pr\u0103bu\u0219it pia\u021ba valutar\u0103 din Republica Moldova - BTV\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Criza prin care trece Republica Moldova are un impact major asupra economiei. Or, acest lucru poate fi sesizat pe pia\u021ba valutar\u0103 prin v\u00e2nz\u0103rile de valut\u0103 ale persoanelor fizice. \u00cen luna martie \u0219i aprilie volumul transferurilor a sc\u0103zut cu 18 milioane USD la 188 mil. USD. Cea mai mare c\u0103dere a fost \u00een aprilie cu 12%. 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